• Fraser Slater

Passing Thoughts on Covid-19

 


I read with interest that Scientists from Oxford and Cambridge have determined the risk of death to kids under the age of 15 is greater from Lightning Strike than Covid.


Their research also provides the probabilities of death by age cohort. I compared these to other odds of death and found the following:


  • Age 25 to 44 cohort: more likely to die of choking on your food than Covid. 

  • Age 45 to 64 cohort: similar risk of bicycle death (regardless of whether or not you own a bicycle). 

  • Age 65 to 74 cohort: risk of Covid death similar to odds of dying in a motorbike accident (regardless of whether you own a motorbike or not). 

  • Age 75 to 90 cohort: more chance of death by a Fall than Covid. 


Hong Kong Flu killed 80,000 people in the UK in 1968/69. Most experts concur that if reporting standards in 1969 were similar to Covid-19 standards today the true number of Hong Kong Flu deaths in the UK would have been around 160,000 (vs the 40,883 Covid-19 Deaths recorded to 09/06/20). Clearly life carried on as normal in 1968/69 with no lockdowns and no interruptions to daily lives. Indeed most elderly people I know who were alive at that time can barely remember Hong Kong Flu - little surprise given that media sensationalism was not what it is now. 


In light of the above and with the benefit of more robust statistical evidence, there is surely a very strong case that lockdown should cease ASAP and a more pragmatic approach is required. Put simply the British public will need to live with the risk of Covid-19 going forward. Afterall if kids face a higher risk of death by lightning strike than Covid, then surely they should never be let outside - lest they be struck by lightning! 


Fraser Slater

10/06/20


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